Do the Math

Before doing any serious bidding, I follow a certain process. When I look for an auction product I might be able to win, first I consider both the known and unknown factors.

Known Factors

  • After the auction reaches the $5 and “No New Bidders” are allowed, I look at auctions of 30 competitors or less.
  • I check to see if the best-known power bidders have already been eliminated.
  • Over the last seven times this auction was listed, I check the average closing cost and the average number of bids used to win.
  • I check to see if any of the active competitors recently won a large bid pack?
  • I check the experience level of the active competitors.

This morning I started bidding for  the Bolvaint Leather Gloves Women’s – XL, with a retail price of $350.00. There were 27 bidders in this auction. The power bidders have already been eliminated. Five out of the last seven times this auction was listed, it closed for $10.29 or less and five out of the last seven times, the winners used 300 bids or less. None of the three active competitors left in the auction won any recent auctions. One was a new player and one had been playing for two years. Therefore, I figured I had five out of seven chances of winning this auction by placing 300 bids.

Unknown Factors

I did not know:

  • How many bids the remaining three active players had placed in the auction or
  • If any new players were going to join the auction.

What Next?

When the auction got down to me and one other player, a new player suddenly joined the auction. I then checked the winners’ list and learned the new player won an 800 bid pack 14 hours earlier. I looked to see if the new player had already used any of those bids in the last 14 hours. Yes, this player had used 520 bids to win another auction an hour ago. That would leave that bidder with at least 280 bids. Then I saw the same bidder also won another 200 bid pack for only 5 bids and 150 bid pack for only 5 bids. I figured this player would now have at least 620 bids to use on this auction and I only had 81. Therefore, I cancelled my bids.

Blog posts are written by real DealDash customers. The opinions and advice here represent our customers’ views and not those of the company. This sponsored blog post was submitted by: Barbara L. Sellers. Barbara was compensated by DealDash for this blog post.